Kenya’s sugar industry has struggled to achieve commercial viability in recent years. By 2019, the industry’s future existence is now in question. Low yields and mill efficiency have caused disrupted delivery and driven prices to an average $800 per tonne, compared with a global price of $280 per tonne. Trade protection capping the importing of foreign sugar at lower prices is due to end in 2020, to meet the rules of the trading bloc COMESA. Thus, Kenya faces a final opportunity to resolve its productivity, cost and processing issues to achieve globally competitive pricing, or, from 2020, its market will disappear in the face of cheaper imported sugar.

Transiting to other crops will be a huge cultural and methodological transition, presenting new issues of productivity. Sugar cane farmers who become tea farmers have no knowledge of growing tea, but they do have a broad base of experience in sugar. The challenge, therefore, lies in defining and executing at speed the ideal set of actions to raise sugar productivity and reduce the cost base. To this end, the regulation driving the sector’s structure and support is being redrawn.

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